Dolphins vs Patriots Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?
The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points over the Patriots for the Sept. 17 showdown, according to DraftKings FL Sportsbook. That means that Miami has to win by at least three points to cover the spread.
Being a home underdog has been rare for the Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick, but that is currently the case when it comes to the Week 2 contest against the Dolphins. Miami is just a slight favorite. Oddsmakers are expecting another close game. New England nipped Miami 23-21 in last season's matchup in Foxborough.
No over/under is yet set, but expect a low-scoring contest. On average, these two teams score 37.4 total points per meeting, according to DraftKings. The two meetings last year featured just 27 and 44 total points, respectively.
DraftKings also has odds markets on several series stats for the Dolphins and Patriots this season, including:
- 📊 Series Tied at 1-1: -110
- 📊 Dolphins Go 2-0: +175
- 📊 Patriots Go 2-0: +475
- 📊 Either Game Ends in Tie: +2500
Latest Dolphins Patriots Odds, Updates, & News
It was an interesting offseason for the two teams. This year's contests will feature a couple players familiar with the rivalry, but in new uniforms.
- 📅 July 28, 2023: Miami CB Jalen Ramsey undergoes surgery to repair a meniscus tear. Acquired in March in a trade with the Los Angeles Rams, Ramsey will miss at least the first half of the 2023 season.
- 📅 July 27, 2023: The Dolphins announce that they will wear their throwback uniforms for the Oct. 29 home contest against the Patriots.
- 📅 July 20, 2023: New England announces it will wear its red throwback jerseys for the primetime contest against Miami on Sept. 17.
- 📅 March 20, 2023: New England signs former Miami TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki finished with more than 2,600 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns, including two against the Patriots, in five seasons with the Dolphins.
- 📅 March 17, 2023: Miami signs former New England P Jake Bailey. Bailey spent four years with the Patriots and was a first-team All-Pro in 2020.
Dolphins Patriots Spread: What The Spread Tells Us
The 2.5-point spread in favor of the Dolphins suggests that oddsmakers are expecting another close game between the teams. That last two meetings in Foxborough have been decided by just three total points. While the spread is small, the Dolphins are still favored, which indicates that oddsmakers see Miami as a better team than New England.
Dolphins Patriots Line: What The Moneyline Tells Us
Like the spread, the moneyline suggests a close game, but betting the Dolphins straight up may not be the best of wagers.
Listed at -130, a $10 bet on Miami to win outright would pay just $7.69. A $10 bet on New England to pull the upset would pay out $11.
Dolphins Chances To Win vs Patriots
New England was able to top the Miami Dolphins in the last meeting between the teams in Foxborough, but recent history has given the edge to Miami.
Dating back to December 2020, the Dolphins have won four of five meetings between the teams. In each of the last two victories, the Dolphins scored defensive touchdowns. A Kyle Dugger interception return for a touchdown last season put New England ahead for good in its 23-21 New Year's Day victory over Miami.
How The Dolphins Win vs Patriots
It should be noted that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is undefeated as a starter against the Patriots, but he hasn't put up big numbers. In recent victories for Miami over New England, the recipe for success has been turnovers. In last season's 20-7 victory in South Florida, the Dolphins got 10 points off New England turnovers, including a fumble return for a touchdown by Melvin Ingram. In the 2021 season finale, Xavien Howard and Sam Eguavoen each scored defensive touchdowns in a 33-24 victory.
How The Patriots Win vs Dolphins
For New England to beat Miami, the Patriots will have to play mistake-free on offense and avoid giving up the big play. The Dolphins scored a back-breaking touchdown late in the first half of last season's opener on a long strike from Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle. In New England's last five losses to the Dolphins, it is -9 in the turnover department. Miami has four defensive touchdowns over that stretch.
Dolphins Patriots Prop Bets
How the head-to-head contests between the Dolphins and Patriots play out could ultimately determine how some preseason props play out. Here is a look at some to pay attention to.
Dolphins Patriots Player Props
Considering they were a part of the same quarterbacks room at the University of Alabama, Miami's Tua Tagovailoa and New England's Mac Jones will long be compared to one another.
The expectations are higher for Tagovailoa, but for him to exceed the O/U for touchdown passes of 26.5, he will need to set a new career-high and likely stay relatively healthy. After earning Pro Bowl honors as a rookie, Jones failed to throw for 3,000 yards in 14 games last season and has an O/U of 3,199.5 yards set for this season.
Out wide, Miami's Tyreek Hill is listed at +200 to eclipse 1,500 yards receiving after finishing second in the NFL with 1,710 yards last season while New England's JuJu Smith-Schuster (+8000) could be a dark horse to lead the NFL in catches.
EDGE rusher Matthew Judon's O/U for sacks is set at 11.75, a total he's eclipsed in each of his first two seasons with the Patriots.
Dolphins Patriots Team Props
Despite being separated by just a game last season, the Dolphins playoff chances (-110) are much higher than the Patriots' (+250). Had the Patriots swept Miami instead of splitting the two meetings last year, it would have been them and not the Dolphins making the playoffs.
Oddsmakers also give the Dolphins better odds to win more games this season than New England. The Dolphins have accomplished that feat in two of the past three seasons. Although there were seasons where Miami and New England had an equal number of wins, prior to 2020, the Dolphins had not won more games than the Patriots in any season since 2000.
With an over/under of 9.5 wins, oddsmakers expect Miami to have a fourth straight winning season. That's something that hasn't happened since it had seven straight winning seasons from 1997 to 2003. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins (-110) are the only team with equal odds to make and miss the playoffs.
The Dolphins Super Bowl odds rank in the Top 10 of all NFL teams, while New England's +6500 odds to win the Super Bowl are its worst preseason odds since 1993.
History of Dolphins Patriots Games
The Dolphins and Patriots have met just three times all time in the playoffs, but there has been no shortage of key matchups between the teams. That included a matchup for the AFC East crown in the 1997 season finale on Monday Night Football and a 1980 overtime victory for the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in which Howard Cosell told the world that legendary musician John Lennon had been fatally shot.
The teams also played the famous "Snowplow Game" in 1982 in which the stadium snowplow operator cleared a spot during a timeout that allowed the Patriots to kick the winning field goal in a 3-0 victory.
On Christmas Eve 2000, the Dolphins clinched the division with a 27-24 win over the Patriots, but their initial celebration was premature as the teams were called back onto the field 35 minutes after the contest was seemingly over following a replay reversal.
It should be noted that Miami defeated New England in the 2019 regular season finale to stop the Patriots from clinching a first-round bye in what would be Brady's final regular-season home game for New England.
Dolphins Record vs Patriots
Despite the Patriots experiencing two decades of dominance with Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady under center, the Dolphins still hold the edge in the all-time series with a 60-55 advantage. Historically, the home team has dominated. Miami is 41-17 all-time against the Patriots at home. As the home team, New England is 38-19 against the Dolphins.
Despite their struggles during most of the 2000s and 2010s, Miami owned more wins over the Patriots during the Brady era that any other team. The Dolphins have won four of the last five in the series.
All-Time Best Dolphins Patriots Games
Throughout their 115 meetings, the Dolphins and Patriots have had contests that were pretty, ugly and downright bizarre. Here's a look at three more noteworthy contests in the teams' head-to-head history.
New England 31, Miami 14 (AFC Championship): Jan. 12, 1986
After splitting the two regular season meetings, the Dolphins and Patriots met a third time during the 1985 season with a trip to Super Bowl XX on the line. Miami had handed the Chicago Bears their lone regular season loss and seemed on a collision course for a Super Bowl rematch, but the Patriots had other plans.
Tony Eason threw for three touchdowns while the New England offense held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and racked up 255 yards on the ground, including 105 from Craig James. Miami quarterback Dan Marino passed for 248 yards and two scores, but on just 20-for-48 passing with two interceptions.
Miami 39, New England 35: Sept. 4, 1994
Fresh off a season-ending Achilles injury, many wondered whether Miami quarterback Dan Marino would be able to still play at a high level. In the 1994 season opener, he put all doubts to rest. In a contest that featured nearly 1,000 yards of offense, Marino out-dueled New England's Drew Bledsoe, passing for 473 yards and five touchdowns.
Miami trailed by as many as 11 points, but went ahead for good with just over three minutes to go as Marino found Irving Fryar, a former Patriot, for a 35-yard touchdown on fourth-and-5. Fryar finished with 210 yards receiving and three touchdowns in the win over his former team.
Miami 34, New England 33: Dec. 9, 2018
On a play that came to be known as the "Miami Miracle," the Dolphins seemed destined for another loss to New England late in the regular season. With the Patriots nursing a 33-28 lead, the Dolphins were down to their last play from their own 31-yard-line with seven seconds left. Anticipating a Hail Mary, the Patriots put tight end Rob Gronkowski back deep, which proved to be a critical mistake.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill fired over the middle to Kenny Stills just shy of midfield. Following a pair of laterals, running back Kenyan Drake ended up with the ball with open field and a few blockers to assist. As the last line of defense, Gronkowski took a bad angle and Drake scored to complete the 69-yard touchdown and give the Dolphins an improbable victory.
Dolphins Patriots Odds FAQs
Author
Mike Ferguson is a college football betting analyst for FloridaBet.com. Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top college football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in Florida.
